The last time a President of Kenya with the surname Kenyatta had a State function interrupted by a hostile section of a crowd in Luo Nyanza the opposition leader had the surname Odinga.
That day was Saturday, October 25, 1969.
Forty-five years later, on Monday, September 8, 2014, another President Kenyatta faced a hostile section of another otherwise peaceable Luo Nyanza crowd chanting slogans associated with another opposition leader surnamed Odinga.
Forty-five years ago, the occasion was the official opening of the New Nyanza Provincial Hospital by President Kenyatta, a pet project of his estranged former VP that was part-financed by the then USSR, hence the references to it as the ‘Russian hospital’.
Jomo was determined to steal Jaramogi’s thunder by being seen to be the leader inaugurating a development project in deepest Luo Nyanza.
All official expectations were that the KPU leader would observe unwritten protocol and not even turn up. However, not only did he appear, there was a gritted-teeth oral confrontation between both leaders on the presidential podium, part of which was relayed live by an open microphone of the Voice of Kenya, the State broadcaster.
A stunned nation heard Jomo Kenyatta tell Jaramogi Odinga live on national radio, “if you were not my friend of such longstanding, I would have ground your hooligans to flour”.
And then the live transmission was unplugged and the chaotic scenes that followed were captured only by still photograph.
When sections of the overwhelmingly pro-Odinga crowd begun throwing rocks and metal folding chairs at the presidential dais, where Jomo and other VIPs were seated, the officers and men of the President’s Escort opened fire, shooting live rounds directly into the surging crowd.
Among the VIPs evacuated from the besieged enclosure with the President was Vice President Daniel Moi, then barely two years in the office.
The President’s Escort shot its way out of Kisumu on that day. To this day, the official death toll stands at between 10 and 14 and unofficial tolls have spoken of up to a maximum of 100 over the years. The report of the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission contains a memorandum by 11 survivors of the mayhem that makes for rather interesting reading.
Five days ago on Monday, President Kenyatta cut short the launch of a Sh7 billion mosquito net distribution initiative, part of the UN Millennium Development Goals’ programme, after youths shouted ODM slogans and hurled shoes at the VIP enclosure and plastic chairs into an open field, taking care not to strike anyone.
The rowdy youths are diehard supporters of Cord chief principal Raila Odinga, whose father the late Jaramogi had that confrontation with the late Jomo, Uhuru’s father, 45 years ago.
Causing a rumpus in or around a presidential dais is always a dangerous proposition, whatever era or country it might happen in.
In the Cold War’s Big Picture context of 1969, Kenyatta took extremely comprehensive security measures for himself and his entourage.
In the War on Terror context of 2014, Kenyatta Jnr moves around in armoured limousines and salute vehicles and is surrounded by a ring of fire of at least 50 plainclothesmen and -women, to say nothing of uniformed multiagency officers, many of them toting automatic rifles.
Aiming missiles such as shoes and plastic chairs at a VIP dais (or in its vicinity) that has the Head of State, ministers, diplomats, donor aid officials and is surrounded on one side by schoolchildren standing by to sing and dance for invited guests and the crowds, is an extremely high-risk proposition.
These are, after all, the times when grenades are frequently thrown at gatherings, including religious congregations, even in the capital city.
If anything had gone badly wrong at Migori – say, a highly-strung and trigger-happy trooper or agent discharging his or her weapon straight into the rowdy crowd – there would have been hell to pay on all sides.
For the President, who has a crimes-against-humanity case at the ICC that has entered uncharted territory, a shooting incident at which unarmed civilians, including women and children, perished or were injured as he was ringed off by phalanxes of security agents would have wiped off years of crisis PR and image management.
These are the years since December 15, 2010, when the then ICC Chief Prosecutor, Louis Moreno-Ocampo, indicted Uhuru and five other prominent Kenyans, including William Ruto, now Deputy President.
Any wrong move in Migori on Monday and all that crisis PR management would have gone up in a puff of smoke at a time when Ruto is actually away at The Hague, where his crimes-against-humanity case has also reached a pretty pass. Reluctant witnesses are being compelled to testify by video link from Nairobi and the first one (of eight) was promptly declared a hostile witness by the judges.
If the incident at Migori had ended in a hail of bullets, a body count and groaning injured survivors being visited by opposition leaders in hospitals and homes, the accompanying international media coverage would have made the ICC suspects’ Presidency rue the day it had conceived of entering office.
Uhuru must have had a terrible Monday night and all day Tuesday, recovering his equilibrium only around midweek, by which time the Intelligence service and local Migori police and administrators had taken a closer look at the rowdy incident and made their reports.
It is incidents like this that lead to brooding and introspection – and even character sea changes – at the very top. The incident at Migori had eerie parallels with the sabotaging of the Orange Democratic Movement’s National Delegates’ Convention on February 27. Both had terrific prospects for going badly wrong and resulting in massive bloodletting on live TV, and yet within the first five-to-10 seconds of each disruption, it was clear that the rowdy participants had no intention of harming anyone, leave alone a VIP.
Even persons with no security training or situational self-awareness could almost instantly tell that the rowdy Migori youths, like the men-in-black at the Kasarani Auditorium in February, were only out to spoil the party for the sake of spoiling the party.
The plainclothesmen Presidential guards, presumably his last line of defence in such open-air circumstances, knew instinctively that there was no real danger there. They took up positions around the President almost unobtrusively and unthreateningly. This was how President Kenyatta was able to have his say, although hurriedly and in brief.
Uhuru must have weighed and considered his and his handlers’ warm welcoming of Raila to Kiambu County a fortnight ago at Dr Njoroge Mungai’s funeral service and frowned very deeply indeed. At that service, held in the PCEA Church of the Torch at Thogoto, the former Prime Minister was seated between former President Mwai Kibaki and first First Lady Mama Ngina Kenyatta, Uhuru’s mum.
The President must be absolutely amazed that there exist strategists on the other side of the political aisle who can gamble with such a prospect and get him into such international loss of face all over again.
What’s more, Uhuru no doubt has advice coming to him from all directions, including, almost certainly, from two retired presidents who had major run-ins with the Odinga factor early in their own tenures at State House, as well as later.
Daniel arap Moi (in office 1978-2002), for instance, survived a coup attempt on August 1, 1982, barely four years in office, in which both the Jaramogi and Raila played a role. Twenty years later in his final months of a 24-year incumbency, Moi had to contend with Raila again, entering a marriage of convenience between Kanu and Odinga’s NDP in March 2002, only to see the latter lead an exodus out of the ruling party in October of that year.
Mwai Kibaki (2003-2013) also had to contend with Raila twice – at the November 2005 national referendum, Kenya’s first, and the December 2007 presidential poll. Raila won in 2005, but disputed the 2007 result and took the mass action route, detonating the post-election violence crisis.
The Odinga factor remains a versatile constant in Kenya’s presidential politics – and always dangerous from where the incumbents of any one era since 1964 sit.
- The Star